With Minnesota Governor Tim Walz on the national ballot in 2024, it won’t be surprising if there are more eyes than usual on Minnesota voters this presidential election. At Minnesota Compass, we took a look at voter turnout trends from the past decade to find out what we might expect as Minnesotans head to the polls in November.
1. Minnesota leads the nation in voter turnout
Minnesota has been first in the nation in voter turnout in every presidential election since at least 2004. Nearly 4 out of 5 eligible voters voted in 2020, which was both the highest turnout in the nation, and the highest in Minnesota’s recent history.
2. Midterm turnout surged in 2018, and remained high in 2022
Midterm turnout jumped 14 percentage points from 2014 to 2018. Although it ticked back down a bit in 2022, it remained high, with more than 3 in 5 eligible voters casting ballots.
3. Statewide primary turnout was lower than in recent years
Turnout in Minnesota’s statewide primary rose dramatically in 2018, and remained high in 2020 and 2022, previewing the high turnout in the general elections in those years. But primary turnout in 2024 was just 15%, similar to 2014 levels. Whether this drop is predictive of lower voter engagement or just a result of less competitive primaries than in previous years remains to be seen.
4. Voter registration is rising
About 86% of eligible voters were registered for the 2022 midterms, and Minnesota has continued to add voter registrations since then. As of the primary on August 13, Minnesota had 40,000 more registered voters than on Election Day 2022, totaling more than 3.6 million Minnesotans. Minnesota is also one of about half of U.S. states that allow same-day voter registration, so we will continue to add registered voters through the end of Election Day.
5. Suburban voters are Minnesota’s largest voting block
Voters in the Twin Cities suburbs made up the largest share of voters in the last presidential and midterm elections. 1.46 million suburban residents voted in 2020, compared to 1.44 greater Minnesota residents and 390,000 Minneapolis and Saint Paul residents. With almost 85% of suburban residents voting in 2020, the region has the highest voter turnout rate as well.
6. Absentee voting returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2022
About 24% of Minnesota voters voted absentee in 2018, a share that then skyrocketed to 58% percent in 2020 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Absentee voting dropped back down to 27% in the 2022 midterms, suggesting most Minnesotans still prefer to vote in person on Election Day.
7. Young adult turnout is low, but rising
Young adults vote at a lower rate than older adults, with about 7 in 10 adults under 35 casting ballots in 2020 compared to more than 8 in 10 adults 35 and older. However, voter turnout in the younger age group increased 9 percentage points from 2016 to 2020. Midterm turnout among young adults also rose sharply from 2014 to 2018, and remained high in 2022, suggesting that engagement has held steady.
8. Gaps in voter turnout persist
In addition to age, Minnesota sees persistent gaps in voter turnout for other demographic groups. Turnout among Minnesotans of color in 2020 was about 13 percentage points lower than among non-Hispanic white Minnesotans.
Renters and unmarried Minnesotans voted at lower rates in 2022. Higher-income and more highly educated Minnesotans voted at higher rates. One place where we don’t see a gap is by gender. Minnesota men and women vote at about the same rate.
9. Lack of interest in the election tops the reasons for not voting
Among Minnesotans who didn’t vote in 2020, lack of interest in the election topped the list of reasons given by eligible voters who did not register to vote. Registered voters who did not turn out to the polls also cited lack of interest as a top reason, along with being too busy or out of town, illness in the family, and dislike of candidates or campaign issues. Those who were not registered to vote cited a mixed set of other reasons for not registering, from believing they would not be eligible to missing the registration deadline.
Election Day will show what trends continue
In the time remaining until Election Day, candidates and organizers will be working to get out the vote, hoping to maintain Minnesota’s high level of civic engagement while also getting lower-propensity voters reconnected to the election process. Election Day 2024 will tell us whether Minnesota’s voting trends continue. Does Minnesota continue to lead the nation in turning out to the polls? Do suburban voters continue to be our largest voting block? Does high midterm turnout and increased registration foretell continuing strong turnout? And can our state continue to close age, race, and socioeconomic gaps in who comes to the polls? Check back with Minnesota Compass in early December for new data and analysis of Minnesota’s participation in the 2024 election!